What was the biggest surprise or story in seniors housing in 2024, and what will be the biggest surprise or story in 2025?
Decline in Construction Starts
By Curtis King, Executive Vice President, HJ Sims
The most significant seniors housing story of 2024 was the continued decline in construction starts, a trend that began in 2022, driven largely due by the lack of development financing. In 2025, the biggest story will be improved operating performance from rising real rental rates and occupancy levels due to the lack of new inventory. This improvement will set the stage for capital inflows in 2026, fueling a new wave of development.
Inventory Gap Projections
By Layla Nevo-Hacohen, Chief Investment Officer, Sabra Health Care REIT
The biggest story in 2024 for seniors housing was NIC’s outlook for the sector and the staggering inventory gap that is expected within a few short years. Suddenly, in 2024, seniors housing was just behind data centers in terms of expected growth. Values were poised to rise because of improved operating results, investor demand and the cheaper cost of capital. In January 2025, the baby boomers are still aging as quickly as in 2024, but a rise in borrowing rates has put the path to filling the inventory gap and fulfilling investors’ excitement in question.
Reducing Staff Turnover
By Amy Silva-Magalhaes, Chief Operating Officer, The Bristol Assisted Living
One of our greatest stories in 2024 was a significant reduction — 16 percent — in staff turnover. This was the result of strategic initiatives aimed at improving satisfaction and retention. We made a concerted effort to enhance workplace culture through team-member engagement, robust career development programs and compensation packages, flexible scheduling, a 501c(3) offering and wellness programs.
In 2025, organizations will continue to emphasize supportive, rewarding environments for team members, driving reduction in turnover across the industry and ultimately leading to better care outcomes for residents and a more positive culture overall.
The Politicization of ESG
By Chuck Hurchalla, Founder, CEO, Evolution Sustainability Group
The biggest story has been the politicization of the term ESG (environmental, social and governance). Going into 2024, ESG principles were a cornerstone of corporate responsibility within the seniors housing sector. However, as we transition into a new administration, the term “ESG” has become increasingly politicized. Rather than abandoning ESG principles in 2025, many operators are strategically reframing their efforts under alternative terminology as sustainability projects. Energy conservation measures (ECMs) such as balancing water flow rates, implementing toilet-tank retrofits, leveraging AI-driven HVAC optimization and installing occupancy-sensing thermostats have become increasingly popular among seniors housing operators as these projects offer a robust ROI.
Boomer Preferences Take Center Stage
By David Mercugliano, Vice President, Senior Director of Business Development, LCS
Probably the biggest surprise in 2024 was the rapid fill and stabilization of Broadview at Purchase College, which opened in Purchase, New York, in December 2023. The “secret sauce” had less to do with location or aesthetics (though both are favorable) than with the surge of interest in retiring to a college campus. Demand was so great that stabilization was reached within six months, allowing for the elimination of short-term debt 18 months ahead of proforma. I believe the greatest story of 2025 won’t be unlike this one. As boomers enter seniors housing in greater numbers, we will see strong demand for environments that speak to their interests, as they eschew hotel-luxury offerings in favor of comfortable environments with self-enrichment opportunities.