From The Magazine

As variable-rate loans reach their maturity, higher interest rates are making refinancing difficult — or impossible — and leading to distressed properties hitting the market. By Jeff Shaw The challenge is well known by now. Interest rates saw an unprecedented rise in the last two years. To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised the federal funds rate 11 times from near zero percent in March 2022 to a target range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent as of mid-January, leading to higher borrowing costs across the board in the seniors …

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Prices are just beginning to stabilize after a 2022 wracked with catastrophes led to unprecedented rate increases. By Jeff Shaw As if things weren’t challenging enough for senior living owners… Expense increases have been a major contributor to shrinking profit margins in the seniors housing space since the COVID-19 pandemic struck in 2020. Whether it’s due to increased labor costs or rising construction costs, it seems like the “L” portion of the P&L keeps growing. We’ll add property insurance premiums to that list — 2022 was a devastating year for …

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By Matt Valley The seniors housing industry is still reeling from the “triple whammy” that began with a deadly pandemic in early 2020, making 2024 a pivotal year for borrowers and lenders, says Ari Adlerstein, senior managing director with Meridian Capital Group. “We had COVID, then we had labor shortages, and now we have high interest rates. Folks that I’ve been doing business with for 13 years in my career who are really good operators and who run a great shop with tons of assets and lots of cash flow …

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Architects and interior designers see their work shift toward updating older properties as ground-up development activity continues to wane. By Jeff Shaw The slowdown in new construction starts in the seniors housing industry has far-reaching consequences.  The number of seniors housing units under construction relative to the total existing seniors housing inventory was 4.7 percent in the third quarter, the lowest percentage since 2014, according to NIC MAP Vision data. While this obviously means less work for seniors housing builders, it also means less work for the architects and interior …

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Nonprofit providers consolidate, grow cautiously and seek efficiencies to continue serving seniors. By Jane Adler Nonprofit senior living providers face the same market forces as their for-profit counterparts, but nonprofits are putting their own spin on how to address operational challenges while fulfilling their mission.  Operating margins have been squeezed and consolidation among nonprofits is an ongoing theme. The organizations hope to realize the benefits of scale to reduce costs and boost productivity. Mease Life, for example, completed its affiliation with Acts Retirement-Life Communities in October 2023. Based in Dunedin, …

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With a $500 million pipeline, the developer is one of the few currently working on ground-up construction projects. By Jeff Shaw With borrowing rates at a 20-year high, the cost of construction extremely high in its own right, and suitable development sites becoming harder and harder to find, very few seniors housing builders are breaking ground right now. In the private-pay seniors housing segment, year-over-year inventory growth nationally was 1.3 percent in the third quarter of this year, according to NIC MAP Vision. That figure is near the smallest year-over-year …

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Deal volume in the Section 232 program fell 3 percent to nearly $2.87 billion in FY 2023, but signs of a rebound emerge. By Matt Valley Considering the body blows the seniors housing industry absorbed coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic — including a spike in interest rates, inflation and labor issues that negatively impacted net operating income — deal volume in HUD’s Section 232 healthcare mortgage insurance program for fiscal year (FY) 2023 was solid, say lenders. Annual lending volume decreased 3 percent to nearly $2.87 billion, while the …

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By Bendix Anderson The problem can seem too big to solve. Many seniors can’t afford private-pay seniors housing, such as independent living, assisted living or memory care. But millions of those potential residents also have too many financial resources to move into housing reserved for low-income seniors. By 2029, there will be 14.4 million of these “missing middle” seniors.  A few developers have new ideas about where these seniors might live. The prototypes of their new middle-market seniors communities are now under construction. From licensed assisted living in Florida to …

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While rising occupancies and improving cash flows buoy owners and operators, questions remain whether net operating income will ever completely recover. By Jane Adler After several years of punishing declines, net operating income (NOI) — defined as operating income minus expenses — is slowly climbing back. As a vital metric used to assess the profitability and value of a property, any improvement in NOI is a good sign for the health of the sector. Seniors housing occupancy has been on the upswing for eight consecutive quarters, boosting revenues.  The occupancy …

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By Jeff Shaw By many metrics, it has been a slow couple of years for REITs immersed in the seniors housing segment.  The volume of acquisitions and dispositions by REITs in 2022 was the lowest in at least a decade, according to MSCI Real Assets. The expectation is that 2023 is going to be another down year for transaction volume.  Publicly traded investors made approximately $2.5 million in acquisitions and dispositions in 2022, dropping from $12.7 billion in 2021. As recently as 2015 that number was over $15 billion. But …

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