By Martin Kimmel
The seniors housing industry faces a recurring challenge that costs organizations millions of dollars, delays openings and can prevent projects from moving forward entirely misaligned project budgets.
The issue starts with a simple question from a leader: “What will it cost to do this renovation?” or “How much for that expansion we’ve been discussing?”
The person being asked, often from facilities or operations, almost never has enough information to provide an accurate answer. However, leadership needs a number to begin planning, so eventually a preliminary figure is generated.
That number then becomes the number — entered into pro formas, shared with leadership and built into financial projections. As the project is defined over subsequent months, or even years, a predictable pattern emerges: the original estimate was too low. Early numbers developed without adequate planning are rarely accurate.
Ultimately, the budget no longer supports implementation. Projects fail or have their scope diminished, often eliminating the very features that would have made the project more successful and the community more competitive. Occasionally, organizations secure additional capital, but more often, the original vision is compromised.
After observing this cycle repeated across the industry, a fundamental question emerges: Can there be a better way for owners to approach project planning?
The answer lies in an organized, strategic approach.
Aligning Architecture and Budgets
One of the most common causes of project failure is the misconception that cost estimates can be generated before project definition. In reality, accurate budgeting requires a clear understanding of what is being built, why it is needed and how it will support the organization’s mission. The rub here is that the traditional design model is too costly and too time consuming to get a good answer regarding project scope and cost quickly.
Moreover, the architectural profession has earned negative stereotypes for poor alignment of design with budget. Too often, architects present schemes clients cannot afford, then explain why more money is needed to realize the design.
This has eroded trust in architects. Architects should treat money as real and as fixed as gravity. It is our responsibility to do more with the client’s budget, rather than explaining why the client needs more money.
With this in mind, we created a new planning process to solve the early cost/scope paradox quickly and accurately. At Kimmel Architecture, this is called the MasterConcept Plan® (MCP®), which was designed to guide owners through critical early decision-making while producing a plan that holds up through completion. There are five steps that can be completed across three to six weeks
Step 1: Establish Mission and Market
Begin by understanding what the organization is trying to accomplish with a given project. What is the mission? What market is being served? What can make the organization competitive? What does success look like?
Step 2: Outline Existing Conditions and Budget Parameters
Projects succeed or fail based on existing conditions and available funding. Planning should include a thorough assessment of the building and site conditions that affect design and cost. This establishes a realistic budget — or clear financial guardrails — with both a spending ceiling and a minimum investment needed to achieve project goals.
Step 3: Define Experience
A meaningful program goes beyond square footage and room counts. The intended resident experience should be clearly defined, including the features that attract and retain residents. This is where competitive advantage and mission become part of the design.
Step 4: Identify Architectural Concepts
Develop enough of the design to demonstrate how identified needs can be met through renovation, expansion, or new construction. Site plans, floor plans, renderings and a detailed scope narrative are sufficient to establish feasibility and generate accurate cost projections.
Step 5: Engage in Comprehensive Cost Estimating
Thoughtful early-stage estimations incorporate the total project cost — including construction, soft costs and furniture, fixtures and equipment — into one comprehensive budget.
This creates a disciplined framework for everything that follows. When scope and budget are aligned from the beginning, future decisions have a reliable baseline.
Outcomes
With a solid foundation, projects are positioned for success. Moving forward requires discipline, staying focused on the mission and maintaining the agreed-upon scope.
Avoiding scope creep also becomes much easier with a clearly defined mission, a thorough understanding of existing conditions and rational design solutions. When additional scope is introduced, costs must be tracked carefully to prevent late-stage budget overruns.
Time and again, we have seen that better planning produces better outcomes: projects delivered on time, on budget and better positioned to attract residents and create lasting value.
Whether the project involves renovating an aging assisted living community, expanding memory care capacity or building a new facility, success depends on establishing clarity, discipline and aligning vision with financial reality from the very beginning.
Critical Time for Better Planning
The need for effective capital planning has never been greater. Every day, more than 10,000 Americans turn 65, and the 85-and-older population — with 85 being the average age of an assisted living resident — is projected to reach 14.4 million by 2040. Demand for seniors housing will continue to grow as providers face rising construction costs, labor shortages, increasing consumer expectations and ongoing financial pressures.
When scope, budget, operations and resident experience are planned together, projects are far more likely to achieve their intended outcomes while staying within budget. More importantly, they create communities that serve residents while remaining financially sustainable.
In seniors housing, successful projects do not begin with construction — they begin with informed planning.Martin Kimmel, AIA, NCARB, is founding principal and chief creative officer of Kimmel Architecture, a nationally recognized architecture and interior design firm headquartered in suburban Philadelphia that specializes in the senior living, healthcare, education and government sectors.